Centerline Market Update 2025 Q1

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Centerline Wealth Advisors

 

This newsletter is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to the firm’s investment advisory services. This document is provided for informational purposes only and represents only a summary of the topics discussed. The contents should not be construed as personalized investment advice or recommendations. Rather, they simply reflect the opinions and views of the author(s) at the time of publication. This newsletter contains general information that is not suitable for everyone. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. There is no guarantee that the views and opinions expressed in this newsletter will come to pass. Investing in the stock market involves gains and losses, including loss of principal, and may not be suitable for all investors. There can be no assurance that any particular strategy or investment will prove profitable. This document contains information derived from third party sources. Although we believe these third party sources to be reliable, we make no representations as to the accuracy or completeness of any information derived from such sources, and take no responsibility therefore. Information presented herein is subject to change without notice and should not be considered as a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Certain statements contained herein are forward looking statements which point to future possibilities. Due to known and unknown risks, other uncertainties and other factors, actual results may differ materially from the results portrayed in such forward-looking statements. Please remember that Centerline Wealth Advisors does not provide legal or tax advice, you should speak to your legal and tax advisors about your specific circumstances. Centerline Wealth Advisors, LLC (“Centerline Wealth Advisors” or the “firm”) is an SEC registered investment adviser with its principal place of business located in Kentucky. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Centerline Wealth Advisors may only transact business in those states in which it is notice filed, or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from notice filing requirements. For information pertaining to the registration status of the firm, please contact the SEC on their web site at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov. For a copy of the Centerline Wealth Advisors Privacy Policy, Terms of Use, Disclosure and ADV Document, click the links below.
Copyright © 2025 Centerline Wealth Advisors, All rights reserved.

Massive Data Breach Exposes Billions

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Massive Data Breach Exposes Billions

 

Key takeaways

  • The National Public Data Company suffered a massive data breach affecting nearly three billion records.
  • Most people are likely affected at some level by this breach.
  • The breach compromised sensitive personal information including names, addresses, social security numbers, and historical data—data that is commonly used for identify authentication in financial transactions.
  • Financial advisors need to reassess and update their security protocols for client accounts.
  • Clients should be encouraged to freeze their credit reports and implement two-factor authentication on all financial accounts.
  • Regular monitoring of credit reports is crucial, even for those with frozen credit.
  • The breach highlights vulnerabilities even among companies specializing in data management.
  • Advisors should operate under the assumption that their clients’ sensitive information is already compromised.
  • This breach presents an opportunity for financial advisors to demonstrate their value by guiding clients through enhanced security measures.

Centerline Market Update 2024 Q4

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S&P 500: Best Start to a Year Since 1997

US stocks are off to their best start to a year since 1997.  US equities are on a five-month winning streak, in part to a broadening of the market and the Fed cutting interest rates for the first time since 2020.  In looking forward, the market is entering a seasonally strong period but will have to contend with volatility around the US Election.

Bull Market has been Led by Mega-Caps

Recap of Third Quarter 2024: Change of Leadership

Recap of Third Quarter 2024: What Changed?

Market (and Fed) Shifting Focus to Labor Market

Fed is Forecasting 200 Bps of Cuts by Year-End 2025

Election: Battleground States to Decide the Presidency

Election: Democrats Defending More Seats in Senate

Election: Market Focused on Taxes, Trade and Deficits

Despite the many issues on the ballot this November, we believe some of the most important issues for markets revolve around 1) Taxes, 2) Trade and 3) Deficits.

Investment Implications

  1. Expect an Additional 50 Bps of Cuts by Year-End:  

    Not only did the Fed cut rates in September for the first time since 2020, but they cut by 50 basis points.  The jumbo cut was a signal on the Fed’s intent to not “fall behind the curve.”  The September Fed meeting also provided an updated “Dot Plot,” which showed a majority of FOMC members expect an additional 50 basis points of cuts in 2024.  With two Fed meetings left in November and December, current market odds agree with the Fed.

  2. Equities May Struggle in the Leadup to the Election:  

    September-November is historically the weakest 3-month stretch for equities in a Presidential Election Year.  While the S&P 500 rallied 2.1% in September, a big contributor was the Fed’s jumbo rate cut (50 bps).  The Fed’s next meeting is not until after the election and equity valuations are elevated.  We also could see added volatility if we do not have a declared winner for days or weeks.  On a positive note, US equities historically rally after the Presidential Election into year-end.

  3. Strong Q1 Returns (+10%) Historically Bullish for Rest of Year:  

    This is just the 10th time since 1970 the S&P 500 had 10+% returns in the first quarter to start a year.  In the previous nine occurrences, the S&P 500 had a median return in the third quarter of 1.9%.  The S&P 500 was able to surpass this, finishing the third quarter up 5.9%.  In looking at the fourth quarter and full year returns in these years, the S&P 500 had median returns of roughly 8% and 28%, respectively.  In fact, none of these years produced a single negative calendar year return.

  4. Bond Market Pricing in Too Many Cuts:  

    We believe there is a disconnect between the bond & equity markets.  Equities remain near all-time highs but the bond market is pricing roughly 200 basis points of cuts over the next year (according to the 2-year Treasury yield).  We believe bond market pricing is overdone and yields have dropped too far in anticipation of a quicker cutting cycle.  The economy remains resilient but inflation may be sticky.  As highlighted in our last quarterly outlook, we prefer short-to-intermediate bonds in the fourth quarter.

  5. Chinese Stimulus May Mark a Turning Point:  

    In late-September, Chinese equities posted their best week since 2008 after the government announced a massive stimulus package (highlighted to the right).  As a reminder, China has been stuck in a lengthy downturn due to a property crisis, deflation and weak consumer confidence.  In our view, the magnitude of this stimulus is reminiscent of US stimulus provided in March 2020 by the Fed and US government.  Ultimately the size of this stimulus and commitment “to do more” may help finally stabilize the Chinese market.

 

Centerline Wealth Advisors

 

This newsletter is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to the firm’s investment advisory services. This document is provided for informational purposes only and represents only a summary of the topics discussed. The contents should not be construed as personalized investment advice or recommendations. Rather, they simply reflect the opinions and views of the author(s) at the time of publication. This newsletter contains general information that is not suitable for everyone. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. There is no guarantee that the views and opinions expressed in this newsletter will come to pass. Investing in the stock market involves gains and losses, including loss of principal, and may not be suitable for all investors. There can be no assurance that any particular strategy or investment will prove profitable. This document contains information derived from third party sources. Although we believe these third party sources to be reliable, we make no representations as to the accuracy or completeness of any information derived from such sources, and take no responsibility therefore. Information presented herein is subject to change without notice and should not be considered as a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Certain statements contained herein are forward looking statements which point to future possibilities. Due to known and unknown risks, other uncertainties and other factors, actual results may differ materially from the results portrayed in such forward-looking statements. Please remember that Centerline Wealth Advisors does not provide legal or tax advice, you should speak to your legal and tax advisors about your specific circumstances. Centerline Wealth Advisors, LLC (“Centerline Wealth Advisors” or the “firm”) is an SEC registered investment adviser with its principal place of business located in Kentucky. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Centerline Wealth Advisors may only transact business in those states in which it is notice filed, or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from notice filing requirements. For information pertaining to the registration status of the firm, please contact the SEC on their web site at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov. For a copy of the Centerline Wealth Advisors Privacy Policy, Terms of Use, Disclosure and ADV Document, click the links below.
Copyright © 2024 Centerline Wealth Advisors, All rights reserved.

Listening & Leveling: How Customer Feedback Turned a $50 Idea into a 7-Figure Business

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In the early days of Airbnb, co-founder Brian Chesky went to surprising lengths to gather customer feedback. He would stay with Airbnb hosts to experience the platform as they did, asking detailed questions about their needs and frustrations. Chesky’s commitment to listening wasn’t just about making improvements—it was about truly understanding the customer experience in a way few founders do.

Sara Blakely, the founder of Spanx, took a similar approach. In the early days of her business, Blakely would personally visit department stores to watch customers try on her shapewear and listen to their feedback. She also spoke directly with store employees to learn what worked and what didn’t.

As Spanx grew, Blakely continued reading customer emails and social media comments to stay connected to their needs. When women began asking for more than just shapewear—like leggings and bras—Blakely expanded her product line in response, fueling Spanx’s growth. Her hands-on approach to capturing feedback helped Spanx evolve into a billion-dollar brand.

It’s not just giant companies like Airbnb and Spanx that benefit from this kind of founder obsession with customer feedback. Small business owners can unlock tremendous value by taking the same approach.

 

William Brown’s Journey: From $50 to Seven Figures

William Brown’s story shows how the Listening & Leveling approach can directly increase business value. Brown began with a simple $50 Word document designed to teach beginners how to trade online. What set him apart was his commitment to listening to customer feedback and using it to continually improve.

When customers asked, “What broker do you use?” or “How do I navigate the market?”, Brown didn’t just answer—he adapted his product to better meet their needs. Over time, his offering evolved into a full-fledged educational program with videos, coaching, and additional resources. This not only enhanced the product but transformed Brown’s business, WB Trading, into a far more valuable asset.

By responding to feedback, Brown’s product improved and so did its perceived value. This allowed him to raise prices from $50 to $2,000, significantly boosting profitability. His focus on continuous improvement also deepened customer loyalty, reducing churn and driving long-term value in his business.

Through these strategies, William didn’t just build a better product—he built a more valuable business, leading to a seven-figure exit.

 

Applying Listening & Leveling to Your Business

How can you apply the Listening & Leveling approach to grow your business?

  • Open Feedback Channels: Actively seek customer insights through surveys, follow-up emails, or direct outreach. These insights reveal opportunities to refine your offering and build customer loyalty.
  • Act on Feedback: Quickly implement changes based on what you learn. As your product improves, you can increase prices and boost retention, directly enhancing your business’s value.

No matter how big your business becomes, you’re never too big to listen to your customers. Whether you’re building a billion-dollar empire like Sara Blakely or fine-tuning a niche product like William Brown, customer feedback is the key to staying relevant, evolving your offering, and maximizing your company’s value.

 

To learn more about our program and see how we can help you prepare for the sale of your business go to www.Biz2Beach.com